MarketInsightNewsletterofMemory,CPU,HDDfromQuiksol-Jun-23

2023-06-28 12:39:36 来源：面包芯语

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Brands:Micron, Samsung, Hynix, Nanya, Kioxia, MXIC, Winbond, CPU, HDD

1, The memory market seems tobe in a supply-demand game, where the manufacturers are looking at price raise,which is expected to result a slight price increase in the third quarter.

2, The flash market is well supplied due to weak demand,and trading volume is low.

3, SSD and Module prices arestable recently, and the original factory plans to raise the price by nextmonth.

4, Intel11th generation notebook CPU will be in shortage again.

5, Theserver CPU inventory is overstocked and most of the OEMs are clearing theirstocks.

6, TheGPU shortage is still on going and the price of some items are at higher range.

7, Theprice of HDD has been raised again, and it will be agreater challenge for getting the order.

1. Thememory market seems to be in a supply-demand game, where the manufacturers arelooking at price raises, which is expected to result a slight price increase inthe third quarter.

In June, the storage market seemed to be in a supply-demandgame, with upstream channels looking to raise prices and terminals and spotbrokers unwilling to raise prices. It is said that Samsung began to control shipments thismonth, and there was no pricing at the beginning of this month, which led to asmall increase in the market price of Samsung, mainly DDR3 products. But theactual demand is limited, the market is not active, so that the price risesonly maintained for a short period of time. Factories are purchasing mainly inresponse to actual demand, but prices are already at a low point, which leaveslimited room for price negotiation. Although the major memory manufacturershave a strong desire to raise prices, whether it can be realized in the endmainly depends on market demand.

Due to high inventory levels and continued weak demand, HynixDDR4 8Gb and 16Gb are the lowest priced of all brands. DDR4 8Gb price is around US$1.45, DDR416Gb price has been below US$3.0. There is news that the manufacturer hasraised the price, but due to poor market demand, the price is difficult to pullup. Samsung and Micron prices remained stable this month. There are someinquiries in the market, but the target price is still low, and the transactionis mostly in the form of actual demand. Micron, the Channel is willing tonegotiate a large amount of prices, but the room is limited. Storage manufacturers plan to start raisingprices in Q3, and industry insiders believe that it is safe to keep someinventory at the current low price. It is reported that some factories have been stocking uprecently, but whether the long-awaited reversal will really come in Q3, whichneeds to focus on whether the demand side is improving.

2. Theflash market is well supplied due to weak demand, and trading volume is low.

Nand Flash original wafer is overcapacity,which has impacted on inventory holding level. MicronSLC Flash 4Gb inventory pressure is large, and the market price continues tofall, there are only a several inquiries for some special specifications.Kioxia SLC Flash price is now at a low level, the market has some inquiries,but the target price is generally low.

Samsung consumer eMMC 4GB and 32GB capacity, there aresome inquiries in the market, but due to the recent shortage of originalsupply, the market price is slightly higher than the original shipment price.There is an ample supply of 8GB and 16GB, but the target price is still verylow. There has been a slight uptick in automotive eMMCdemand recently, perhaps due to the Micron incident. However, the priceof automotive is stable, there is no room for bargain, the actual volume is notideal, and the overall market still needs more time to recover. In terms ofKioxia, eMMC prices continue to be stable, and there is not much inventory ofsmall-capacity models by agents and original manufacturers, but there issufficient stock in the market.

Nor Flash, MXIC price is slightly down, but the demandis weak, the target price is low, and the actual volume is not high. Winbond general parts prices have mostly reached the historicallow, 128M prices below US$0.30, and delivery lead time is shortened, but demandis not that good. Micron, the price has dropped slightly, and the price canonly be negotiated with the volume.

3. SSDand Module prices are stable recently, and the original factory plans to raisethe price by next month.

It’s announced that Samsung will start raising SSD prices inJuly. SSD prices have fallen drastically in the past two years, and even at arock-bottom price. Chinese brand Yangtze Memory announced there will be a priceincreases in this month. However, the current SSD market transaction is still not ideal. Theupstream intention to sell is strong, but the terminal demand continues to weak,and most inquiries are still based on understanding of the market. But thecurrent price is already at a very low point, therefore the room fornegotiation is limited.

DDR5 modules are still in short supply, and it is difficultfor upstream channels to get stock, resulting in market prices are higher thanthe original factory prices. PC module demand is mainly concentrated in the DDR5 part,the market has some back orders, and the transaction price has been increased.However, DDR4 PC module demand is weak, and the market price has droppedslightly this month. Server module inventory level is still high, manufacturersand factories are pro-actively sell their inventories, therefore low prices areavailable from the market. However, due to the weak server demand, the customerprocurement target price is getting lower and lower, the overall transaction isnot so well. At present, the overall price is at a low position, and thedownside is limited. Whether the price can really be increased by next month,we need to focus on whether the server and PC market demand are improving.

4. Intel11th generation notebook CPU will be in shortage again.

The IOTG product Ethernet Controller which became a hotitem in the past 1 year, has finally been put on hold recently. The goods from Intel manufactory havecome out one after another, the big OEM customers and FDs also have got thegoods ordered before. However, since Intel raised the official price at thebeginning of October, most of the order prices of LAN chips were higher, butthe accepted price of the customers was still very low. Recently, also due to the demand is weak, leading to someof the previous red material items prices have fallen again and again. Theprice of most items from FD side is higher than the market price. For example,the item NHI350AM4, FD channel price is US$30, but the market order price isUS$25 around.

5. The server CPU inventory is overstocked and most of theOEMs are clearing their stocks.

In terms of CPU, the overall demand is relatively weak,and the PC market is at a loss that been drop significantly. Since last year till to date, many factories have a lotof backlog inventories, and they are gradually selling off their excessinventories to minimize their inventory cost burden for example, 8362;6240. Butsome parts are still in short supply, such as 4310,4310T, and the price ofthese materials are still at high level.

6. The GPU shortage is still on going and the price of someitems are at higher range.

Artificial intelligence has become a hot topic in recent years. In thetrend of artificial intelligence promoted by ChatGPT, GPU is particularlyimportant for the whole AI model. As the calculation basis of the whole tide ofAI, GPU has become the object of "grabbing" by most Internetcompanies, mainly focusing on items ofA100, H100, A800, H800 , and the prices of A100 and A800 have soared a lot inthe past two weeks, and the 80G of A800 has been increased from 70,000 RMB to85,000 RMB, and even the highest has been adjusted to 100,000 RMB. This isindeed at sky high price. As per informed, the A800 will be discontinued, andwhether it will be in ready stock support or lead time needed is subject to reconfirmation.

7. The price of HDD has been raised again, and it will bea greater challenge for getting the order.

From the current situation, although HDD shipments cannotbe compared with the same period of the previous year, but overall, theshipments are more than the previous quarter, this is because since end of May,the original factory began to increase the price from one to another, thecurrent increase has reached 5%-8%, and the final increase will be reaching15%. Now, some large customers are re-allocatedtheir goods, and try to keep stock for some common parts before the price risesto the highest point. However, because the original price is unstable, and it’sadjusted almost all the time, and the confirmation process of customer’s order takes longer time, so it’sdifficult to get the order. Recently, most of the shipments of HDD are still concentrated in thelarge-capacity enterprise level, especially 12TB, 16TB & 18TB. The shippingprice of 16TB is about US$260, and the shipping price of 18TB is about US$280.Other capacities below 10TB are also shipped more, like 4TB, 6TB, and 8TB allbeing shipped one after another. At present, the price changes rapidly, theoriginal factory will continue to increase the price until mid-July, pleasereconfirm the price before placing an order.

Average market price details are listed inthe following table.

Pls take as a reference of below 7 tables:

Table1-Dram spot price

Table2-NAND Flash spot price

Table3-Memory module spot price （DDR4）

Table4-Memory module spot price （DDR5）

Table5-SSD spot price

Table6-CPU spot price

Table7-HDD spot price

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